![]() ![]() Since every state, no matter how big or how small, gets two senators, small states have greater weight in the Electoral College than they would based on their population alone. Under the Constitution, each state gets one electoral vote for each senator and representative it has in Congress. The EVI factor arises from two rules governing the Electoral College – one laid down in the Constitution and one that’s become standard practice over the decades. Bush’s two victories in 20 (1.05 both times). Based on the reported popular vote to date and the expected vote in the Electoral College, Biden’s EVI is 1.11 – smaller, in fact, than Trump’s in 2016 (1.23), and the smallest since George W. The bigger the EVI, the greater the disparity between the winner’s popular vote and electoral vote margins the smaller the EVI, the closer the two margins are to each other. Looking back at every presidential election since 1828 (when they began to resemble today’s system), the winner’s electoral vote share has, on average, been 1.36 times his popular vote share – what we call the electoral vote inflation (EVI) factor. By dividing the winning electoral vote margin by the winning popular vote margin, we arrived at the EVI. (In one state, for which no official 2020 results have yet been posted, we relied on The Washington Post’s vote tracker.)įor each election, we then calculated the share of all available Electoral College votes actually cast for each candidate. To determine the EVI, we first tabulated the votes cast in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, as reported by each jurisdiction’s chief election authority, to determine the popular vote margin. EVI measures the disparity between the winner’s popular vote and electoral vote margins. We updated the electoral vote inflation (EVI) analysis in the 2016 post with results from this year’s Biden-Trump contest. This post builds on work Pew Research Center did following the 2016 presidential election, as well as a recent analysis of close state elections. That two such dissimilar elections could generate such similar Electoral College margins illustrates an abiding feature of the United States’ quirky way of choosing its top executive: The Electoral College consistently produces more lopsided results than the popular vote. (Two Republican electors and five Democratic electors cast “faithless” votes for other people.) Barring any defections from so-called “faithless electors,” Biden is on track to receive 306 electoral votes, or 56.9% of the 538 total votes available.īiden’s victory will be nearly identical to Trump’s Electoral College win in 2016, when Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton 304-227 despite receiving 2.8 million fewer popular votes. 14 in their respective states to cast the votes that will formally make Biden the president-elect, his margin of victory there likely will be greater than his margin in the popular vote. Biden received nearly 81.3 million votes, or 51.3% of all votes cast – a record, and more than 7 million more votes than Trump.īut when the 538 electors meet Dec. Democrat Joe Biden defeated President Donald Trump by about 4.45 percentage points, according to Pew Research Center’s tabulation of final or near-final returns from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
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